Press Release
06/29/06Immigration Press Conference with Senator Schumer and Congressman Emanuel
Thank you Senator Schumer and Congressman Emanuel.
My name is Jim Kessler, Vice President for Policy at Third Way.
I am going to talk briefly about a poll we conducted with the Benenson Strategy Group in 19 battleground states on the issue of immigration, as well as a recent report we released called “Heck of a Job on Illegal Immigration Enforcement.”
First the poll: This is a 1,236-person poll that includes an over-sample of Hispanics and African-Americans. It was conducted in the 19 battleground states of: New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Tennessee, Arkansas, Delaware, Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada.
Bush:
The president has a minus-20-point rating on the handling of this issue (37-57%), including 34-61% in the Southwest and 38-55% in the South, 32-62% among moderates, 38-55% among Whites, and 42-55% among Hispanics.
Enforcement:
Our poll shows that Republicans have a near-fatal vulnerability on enforcement.
- 68% of voters believe President Bush is doing a poor job of enforcing illegal immigration laws, including 69% of voters in the Southwest, 65% in the South, 58% of conservatives, 69% of moderates, 66% of Whites and 67% of Hispanics. These are the numbers before they have been told about the Bush record on enforcement.
- A message that excoriates the Bush Administration and Republican Congress for failure to enforce immigration laws is strong across the board and widely popular among swing groups of voters. By a 63-32% margin, voters were more likely to support a Democratic candidate who said the following: (Actual statement in poll: The Bush Administration and the Republican Congress have talked tough about cracking down on illegal immigration but they have failed to enforce our immigration laws. Arrests of illegal immigrants fell by 30% during the Bush presidency. We need to aggressively enforce the immigration laws on the books.)
- Moderates supported this message 71-23%, Midwesterners 66-30%, Southerners 61-34%, Southwesterners 59-35%, Whites 62-33%, Hispanics 69-25%, and even conservatives 575-38%.
GOP Plan:
The House GOP plan is unpopular because voters believe it is impractical.
- When given a description of the GOP House immigration plan, voters opposed it by a margin of 43-54%, including 45-53% in the SW, 45-50% in the South, and 36-61% among moderates.
- Among those who opposed the plan, 47% described it as impractical. They just don’t believe it’s going to work. (Actual poll statement: Illegal immigration seriously threatens our national security. We must seal our borders, and erect a wall across the Mexican border. We must also reject all amnesty proposals, including a so-called guest worker program, and deport or jail as many illegal immigrants as possible.)
83-15% support Senate-passed plan: Do you or don’t you support creating a way for illegal immigrants already in America who register with the government, to pay a fine for breaking immigration laws, pass a background check, learn English and steadily work for six years to get on a path to citizenship if they obey the law and continue to work.)
Failure to Act:
Who’s blamed if nothing is accomplished? In this case, a tie goes to the Democrats.
- By a 2 to 1 margin, voters will blame Republicans in Congress for failure to pass significant reforms. This is true even in the South, where Republicans are far more dominant, among moderates, and even among conservatives, who will blame Republicans (though by a smaller margin of 8-points).
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Contact: Matt Bennett (202) 775-3768 x212